Keno odds on a 40-number board
Keno at crypto casinos draws 10 numbers out of 40, and you mark between 1 and 10 before the draw. Mark one and it comes up a quarter of the time. Mark five and all five land about once every 2,611 rounds. Getting all ten out of ten is about 1 in 848 million.
Odds for each number of picks
| Picks | All of them hit | About 1 in | None hit | Average hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25.00% | 4 | 75.00% | 0.25 |
| 2 | 5.769% | 17 | 55.77% | 0.50 |
| 3 | 1.215% | 82 | 41.09% | 0.75 |
| 4 | 0.2298% | 435 | 29.99% | 1.00 |
| 5 | 0.0383% | 2,611 | 21.66% | 1.25 |
| 6 | 0.00547% | 18,278 | 15.47% | 1.50 |
| 7 | 0.000644% | 155,363 | 10.92% | 1.75 |
| 8 | 0.0000585% | 1,708,993 | 7.61% | 2.00 |
| 9 | 0.0000037% | 27,343,888 | 5.23% | 2.25 |
| 10 | 0.00000012% | 847,660,528 | 3.54% | 2.50 |
Own calculation: chance of k hits with n picks = C(n, k) × C(40 − n, 10 − k) ÷ C(40, 10). Script: growth6/daten/phase2/b1a/keno.py.
Nothing gets put back during the draw, 10 numbers out of 40. One pick on its own has 10 chances in 40. A second pick needs a drawn number too, but if your first pick already took one, only nine are left for it among the other 39. Stack that up over five picks and all five hitting comes to 0.0383%.
The full spread for 5 and 10 picks
| Hits | 5 picks | 10 picks |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.66% | 3.54% |
| 1 | 41.65% | 16.88% |
| 2 | 27.77% | 31.07% |
| 3 | 7.93% | 28.82% |
| 4 | 0.957% | 14.71% |
| 5 | 0.0383% | 4.24% |
| 6 | 0.679% | |
| 7 | 0.0575% | |
| 8 | 0.00231% | |
| 9 | 0.0000354% | |
| 10 | 0.00000012% |
Own calculation, hypergeometric distribution, 40 numbers, 10 drawn.
Ten picks feels like the big ticket, and mostly you'll watch two or three of them light up. Six or more hits turn up in well under 1% of rounds, so a paytable that only pays properly from six asks a lot of patience. Three picks spread it differently: one match or none 85% of the time, all three about once in 82 rounds.
Check a paytable yourself
Copy every line of the paytable for your pick count, multiply each payout by its chance from the tables above and add them. You end up with the setting's RTP. Our three-pick demo table below adds up to 98.99%, and a real one listed at 99% should come out within a rounding hair of it.
| Hits | Chance | Pays | Adds to RTP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41.09% | x0 | 0 |
| 1 | 44.03% | x0 | 0 |
| 2 | 13.66% | x2.8 | 38.26 points |
| 3 | 1.215% | x50 | 60.73 points |
| Total | 100% | 98.99% |
Invented numbers for illustration, not any casino's paytable.
Stake's keno has difficulty settings from Classic to High. They swap the paytable and leave the draw alone, so every chance on this page holds on all of them. Higher settings move more of the return into the rare top lines. On a small balance, that choice matters a lot more than which numbers you click.
Hot numbers and why the picks can swap with the draw
Count this one out and it sounds wrong at first. Picking 3 numbers and hitting 2 has exactly the chance you'd get by marking the 10 drawn numbers first and then choosing 3 squares blind: 13.66% both ways. Picks and draw can trade places, so your favourite numbers carry the same odds as any others.
Hot and cold number lists get passed around for keno, and predictor apps sell the same idea. Each round is a fresh shuffle from the seeds, no number can come twice, and the casino's seed stays hashed until you change it. Last week's list has no hold on the next draw. Old rounds you can look up yourself: reveal the old seed and run them through a verifier.
18+. Keno has a built-in house edge on every setting. Decide what a session may cost before you start. Help: Responsible gaming. Not affiliated with Stake. Names belong to their owners.
Questions
How rare is 10 out of 10 in keno?
With 40 numbers and 10 drawn, about 1 in 847,660,528.
How many keno numbers should I pick?
Stake's keno lists one RTP for all pick counts, so the average is the same whichever you choose. More picks means rarer top wins and more rounds with small or no payouts in between.
What does Stake Keno pay back on average?
Stake puts it at 99% return to player, so the edge is 1%.
Are some keno numbers luckier?
No. Each round draws 10 numbers fresh, and every set with that many picks has identical chances.
Do keno predictors work?
No. Ten numbers come from a hashed seed you can't read before rotating. Apps promising the next draw are scams.
Sources
- Stake: Keno game page (Wayback, 5 Jun 2026) · current page on stake.com. 99% RTP, 1% house edge, pick 1 to 10 of 40 numbers, 10 drawn, difficulty Classic to High. Live page returns 403 to our fetcher. Checked 12 November 2026
- Stake: provably fair game events (Wayback, 19 Jul 2025). Keno: 10 hits from squares 1 to 40, Fisher-Yates shuffle so no square repeats Checked 12 November 2026
- Stake: provably fair implementation (Wayback, 26 Sep 2026). Keno uses 2 cursor increments per game for its 10 outcomes Checked 12 November 2026
18+ · Play responsibly · gamblingtherapy.org