Hilo odds for every card
In Hilo you guess whether the next card is higher or lower than the one showing, and every correct guess grows the multiplier until you cash out or miss. Cards come from an endless deck, so each of the 13 ranks has the same 1 in 13 chance on every draw. A 7 is the coin flip at 53.85% either way. The cards at the ends are the safe ones, at 12 in 13.
The chance on every card
| Card showing | Higher or same | Lower or same | Pays (higher) | Pays (lower) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowest end card | 92.31% (higher) | 7.69% (same) | x1.07 | x12.87 (same) |
| 2nd | 92.31% | 15.38% | x1.07 | x6.43 |
| 3rd | 84.62% | 23.08% | x1.17 | x4.29 |
| 4th | 76.92% | 30.77% | x1.29 | x3.22 |
| 5th | 69.23% | 38.46% | x1.43 | x2.57 |
| 6th | 61.54% | 46.15% | x1.61 | x2.15 |
| 7th (middle) | 53.85% | 53.85% | x1.84 | x1.84 |
| 8th | 46.15% | 61.54% | x2.15 | x1.61 |
| 9th | 38.46% | 69.23% | x2.57 | x1.43 |
| 10th | 30.77% | 76.92% | x3.22 | x1.29 |
| 11th | 23.08% | 84.62% | x4.29 | x1.17 |
| 12th | 15.38% | 92.31% | x6.43 | x1.07 |
| Highest end card | 7.69% (same) | 92.31% (lower) | x12.87 (same) | x1.07 |
Own calculation with 13 equally likely ranks. Middle cards win "or same" on a repeat; on the two end cards (ace and king on Stake) that rule doesn't apply, so the options there are strictly higher or lower, or the same card. Multiplier = 0.99 ÷ chance. Check the buttons and the probability panel in your game.
The table reads the same from both ends. A card three steps up from the bottom has the same chance for "higher or same" as a card three steps down from the top has for "lower or same". If the numbers in a game panel break that mirror, the deck or the pricing is not what the rules describe.
Stake builds every card from its own float and treats the deck as unlimited. A king that just came up is as likely to come up again as any other rank. Counting what has been dealt, which matters in a shoe game at a real table, gives nothing here.
Skipping to the safe cards
Stake's Hilo lets you skip a card you don't like, up to 52 times. About 31% of draws land on one of the four cards with a 12 in 13 guess, the two ends and the cards next to them. So you can skip until one shows and only ever take those.
| Correct guesses | Chance to get there | Multiplier | Average return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 92.31% | x1.07 | 99.00% |
| 5 | 67.02% | x1.42 | 95.10% |
| 10 | 44.91% | x2.01 | 90.44% |
| 20 | 20.17% | x4.05 | 81.79% |
Own calculation: chance = (12/13)^n, multiplier = (0.99 ÷ 12/13)^n, average return = 0.99^n.
It works as a way to steer the ride. Ten safe guesses double the stake a bit under half the time. What it can't fix is the last column, if the game takes its edge on every guess. Each extra step then costs about 1% more of the stake on average, and twenty steps on the safest cards still return only about 82%.
Does the edge come off every guess?
You can find out in one round. Note the multiplier the game offers for each guess, then multiply those together and compare the result with the running multiplier on screen. If they match, the edge is charged per guess and long runs get dearer. If the running total is higher, the game only takes its cut once, and ten guesses cost no more than one.
- Average chance per guess
- 77.51% (131 in 169)
- 3 correct in a row
- 46.58%
- 10 correct in a row
- 7.83%
- Guessing "same" on an end card
- 7.69%, x12.87 at 99%
Hilo strategy and predictors
There's no order of cards to learn and no streak to wait for, so the only real decisions are bet size, which cards you skip and when you take the money. Hilo predictor apps and "card trackers" can't see a card before it's made from the seeds. To look at a finished round, switch to a fresh seed pair and run the revealed seed through a verifier, card by card.
18+. Hilo has a built-in house edge, and skipping or cashing out early doesn't remove it. Set a budget before you play. Help: Responsible gaming. Not affiliated with Stake. Names belong to their owners.
Questions
How do Hilo odds work?
With an unlimited deck, each rank has a 1 in 13 chance per draw. On a middle card the chance of "higher or same" is the number of ranks from that card up, divided by 13.
Is Stake Hilo a 99% game?
Yes, by its own game page, which gives a theoretical return to player of 99%.
Can you count cards in Hilo?
Not in a crypto Hilo that uses unlimited decks. Past cards have no say in what comes next.
Which Hilo strategy works best?
No strategy beats the edge. Skipping to the end cards and their neighbours gives 12 in 13 guesses, which makes runs smoother, not cheaper.
Do Hilo predictors work?
No. Every card is made from seeds you only see after rotating them. Predictor tools that promise the next card are scams.
Sources
- Stake: Hilo game page (Wayback, 10 Mar 2026) · current page on stake.com. theoretical RTP 99%; skip up to 52 times; for every card except A and K, a repeat wins on either guess. Live page returns 403 to our fetcher. Checked 12 November 2026
- Stake: provably fair game events (Wayback, 19 Jul 2025). Hilo, Blackjack and Baccarat: unlimited decks, each card = float × 52 Checked 12 November 2026
18+ · Play responsibly · gamblingtherapy.org